NDP member support declining for Jagmeet Singh raises questions about his future

Front Bench: The future of the NDP in Canada The Front Bench panel analyzes the strength and ability of the NDP to capitalize off the falling support for the Liberal party.

HAMILTON, Ont. — How good is 81 per cent?

It's a solid "A minus" at nearby McMaster University.

But when it comes to leading a federal party, it means about one in five members aren’t so sure you should keep your job.

This weekend, 81 per cent of NDP delegates voted against forcing a leadership contest. This gave Jagmeet Singh the lowest level of support for an NDP leader since the 2016 convention, when more than half the delegates voted to remove Thomas Mulcair.

“To me it was a bit of a surprise,” said Karl Bélanger, president of Traxxion Strategies. “I was expecting (Singh) to be more around the 90 per cent mark.”

Bélanger was a top advisor to Mulcair, and doesn’t think this leadership review will lead to calls for Singh to resign.

“But it’s clearly a signal that he probably does have one last shot,” Bélanger said.

That shot is expected to play out sometime before the fall of 2025, as Singh will need to produce a significant increase to the 25 federal seats his party has now.

“New Democrats need to elect more NDP members next election,” said Kathleen Monk, a former director of communications to late NDP leader Jack Layton. “And also need to make gains in regions of the country that we are currently locked out of, like the Atlantic and Saskatchewan.”

Since the 2011 “Orange Wave” swept across Quebec --- propelling the Layton-led NDP to 103 seats and Official Opposition status --- the New Democrats have seen their hopes to form government decline.

At this convention in Hamilton, there was a video message from Manitoba NDP leader Wab Kinew, fresh off his win over Progressive Conservative Heather Stephenson.B.C. Premier David Eby and Ontario Official Opposition Leader Marit Stiles also delivered speeches.

As the party hoped to send a message that NDP leaders can challenge and defeat the Conservatives,  Singh has so far been unable to replicate the party’s provincial success at a federal level.

The NDP leader says 81 per cent is still a strong mandate, but understands there’s room for improvement.

“The message I received Is very typical, something I'm proud of, as a New Democrat, which is always to demand more,” Singh said, promising to use his supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals as leverage to do just that.

GROWING FRUSTRATION OVER PERCEIVED STALLED PROGRESS IN SUPPLY AND CONFIDENCE AGREEMENT

NDP delegates are concerned the Liberals are doing some last-minute cramming, and may not be ready to pass pharmacare legislation before the deals deadline at the end of December.

There is appetite within the party to pressure the Liberals and draw a hard line.

“That’s the deal, right? The Liberals said they would do A, B, and C in exchange for our support,” said Robin Steudel, a delegate who travelled from Yukon to attend the convention. “The support has been given and so now they need to pony up.”

Steudel believes, like many other delegates, the NDP must push for more concessions.

“You write that deal, you come up with that deal, and then you need to keep pushing. The work doesn’t really stop on the day that the deal gets signed,” the northern delegate said.

The NDP leader confessed his own frustrations to members during the convention.

“When we made this choice to strike this agreement, to work together, we knew there would be critics,” said Singh in a pre-recorded video played at the convention, ahead of his speech.

“We knew that people would be upset that we’re working together with Primer Minister Trudeau and frankly some days I’m upset because I don’t agree with everything the prime minister is doing”.

While it’s the first federal agreement of its kind between the two parties, it’s not the first time the NDP has worked alongside a Liberal prime minister.

In 1972, then-NDP leader David Lewis propped up Pierre Elliot Trudeau’s minority government in exchange for progressive priorities, including the creation of Petro Canada as a Crown corporation.

But when Lewis voted against the 1974 budget triggering an election, it was Pierre Trudeau’s Liberals who were rewarded with a majority government.

It’s a concern that some NDP members have with the current deal with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

“You’re not getting the credit for some of these policies and programs,” Bélanger said.

They’re also on a timeline that most New Democrats find too slow.

“Singh and the NDP team are doing some challenging stuff, pushing for laws, policies and new programs that are historic but also hard,” said Monk.

“It is easy for folks to critique, but in many ways, Singh has already exceeded what Jack Layton attempted. New Democrats are actually forcing the governing party to enact programs that in the past.”

“Liberals couldn't even utter, like, GST tax credit and the anti-scab bill,” Monk added.

Monk said she expects Singh and his team will continue to face internal party push-back over the deal.

On Saturday, delegates supported an emergency resolution designed to increase pressure on the Liberals around a national prescription drug program.

“The NDP will publicly declare that continued confidence and supply is contingent on government legislation that clearly commits to a universal, comprehensive and entirely public pharmacare program,” the document read.

The convention votes are non-binding, therefore Singh and his caucus still get final say on what policy proposals are adopted.

It's a delicate line for the leader to walk, grassroots members fear, as recent polls show the NDP and Liberals being left in the Conservatives’ rear view mirror.