How severe is London’s housing crisis? Council torn between competing projections and targets

A decade-long building blitz will be needed to address London’s housing needs, but estimates vary widely about how many new residential units will be built.

The forecast in a new consultant’s report prepared for city hall concludes the amount of new housing needed in London over the next 10 years will be far less than the recent construction target imposed by the provincial government.

A Growth Projection Study by Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. recommends future municipal infrastructure investments be based on creating 33,900 new housing units over the next decade.

However, as part of the provincial government’s goal to build 1.5 million new homes, London was recently assigned a 10-year target of 47,000 residential units.

The Urban League of London’s Sandy Levin advised council’s Strategic Priorities and Policy Committee to take a conservative approach to housing projections.

“A higher growth forecast is a riskier strategy,” he said.

Mike Wallace with the London Development Institute countered that the consultant’s recommendation would put the municipality offside with provincial targets, “You can’t ignore it, it doesn’t meet what the province wants you to do as a city,” he said

Civic administration emphasized the impacts of setting a housing target that’s too ambitious.

A report reads, “The risk of over-estimating growth based on targets include over-investing in infrastructure that is not required to accommodate growth, insufficient revenue collection, faulty service delivery planning and a loss of important agricultural lands to urban development.”

Meanwhile, aiming too low could see insufficient municipal infrastructure and delay future residential construction.

Coun. Skylar Franke put forward a motion supporting the consultant’s recommendation of 33,900 units, adding that infrastructure investments can be accelerated if housing construction outpaces the projection.

“That number is based in science and it clearly demonstrates many reasons why it makes the most sense, using the best information and calculations available,” Franke told her colleagues.

But some councillors asked if the city would be a consequence for potentially failing to meet the provincial target of 47,000 homes?

Last week, city hall estimated that changes to the collection of development charges in the province’s new Building More Homes Faster Act, also known as Bill 23, will cost London $97-million over five years.

A recent letter from Ontario’s Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing Steve Clark seems to make reimbursement contingent on meeting provincial targets, “There should be no funding shortfall for housing enabled infrastructure as a result of Bill 23 provided municipalities achieve and exceed their housing pledges and growth targets,” stated the letter.

The committee supported Franke’s motion to support the consultants projection, but also request a staff report containing options, approaches and investments to encourage the additional 13,100 units needed to reach the province’s goal.

“With these plans we are able to make sure we are providing services to development that we need to, and not over-building or under-building services (including) sewers, roads, trees, parks,” Franke told CTV News.

She added that intensification in existing neighbourhoods will be necessary to ensure achieving housing targets doesn’t come at the cost of more urban sprawl.

“Of course, we are trying to follow The London Plan so we do want to intensify.”

If her motion is approved by council next week, staff will prepare a report on achieving the provincial housing target in January or February.