OTTAWA - The TD Bank says Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz may be talking like he's inclined to cut interest rates, but he almost certainly won't.

TD chief economist Craig Alexander says despite the central bank's dovish sentiments about the slow-growth economy, poor job creation, and the "serial disappointment" of the global recovery, Canadians shouldn't expect Poloz to lower interest rates.

The main reason, he says, is that the central bank doesn't want to lure more Canadians into borrowing on housing and it genuinely believes the economy is about to pick up.

Alexander says markets are probably correct in pricing in the next move by the central bank as a hike timed for the fourth quarter of 2015.

When the bank does start to hike its overnight rate, he says, it will do so slowly, and probably to a level that is lower than what was considered normal before the 2008-09 recession, settling in at a so-called new normal of 3.0 to 3.5 per cent.

The Bank of Canada's overnight rate has been set at one per cent since September 2010.